A Press Conference on “China Economic Forecast for 2014” organized by Center for Forecasting Science (CEFS) , Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) is held at the conference hall of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS on January 16, 2014.
On the Press Conference, CEFS released its annual forecasts on China’s GDP growth rate, investment, consumption, export and import, CPI, grain production, development of main industries, global bulk commodities prices, water demand by sector, real estate prices, and logistics industry development for 2014. The main forecasting results are as follows.
China’s economy will consistently develop in 2014, and the annual growth rate of China’s GDP is predicted to be around 7.6% in 2014, which is nearly equal to the GDP in 2013. Particularly, the growth rate of primary industry will be 3.6%, 7.6% for the secondary industry and 8.5% for the tertiary industry. The consumption, investment and the net exports will contribute to 3.7, 3.8 and 0.1 percentage points to China’s GDP growth rate, respectively. From the perspective of quarterly GDP growth rate, it tends to go down first and then up. The GDP growth rate will be 7.4% in the first half year, and 7.7% in the second half year.
The annual CPI in 2014 is expected to rise by around 3.1%. Besides, the annual PPI and PPIRM are expected to rise by around 0.1% and decline at around 0.3% respectively. The annual growth rates of CPI, PPI and PPIRM of 2014 are higher than those of 2013. In 2014, the dominant trend for China’s CPI is going up, the rate goes up in the first half year, while slow down in the second half year.
China’s consumption will maintain a stable growth. The nominal growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods will be around 13.7% in 2014, slightly higher than that of 2013. China will also see a stable investment growth. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets will be around 20% in 2014, remaining the same as that of 2013.
In the context of continuing recovery of developed economies and stable growth of China’s economy, China’s export and import are expected to keep steady increase in 2014, both with the growth rate of around 8.2%, leaving the country with an increased trade surplus of around 278 billion U.S. dollars. A rapid growth of export and import between China to the United States is expected, up around 8.5% and 10.8% last year. The growth rate of export from China to European Union turned to be positive at the end of 2013, and this increasing trend will continue in 2014. The export and import from China to European Union are expected to rise by 4.0% and 6.0% respectively in 2014. Growth rate of Mechanical and electrical products will increase slightly in 2014, with the value of 9.0% and 8.2% for its export and import. Export of high-tech products will remain stable. The growth rates of export of high-tech products are around 7.3% and 7.5%, respectively. Labor-intensive products will continue to maintain steady growth. Growth rates of clothing, textiles and footwear in 2014 are predicted to be around 11.4%, 10.8% and 10.3% respectively.
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