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Outlook on 2014 China’s Logistics Industry
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 2014-01-23 19:24 By:GMW.cn  BBS of GMW.CN

Outlook on 2014 China’s Logistics Industry

In the year 2013, the world economy is still in the period of profound adjustment, it indicated some signs of short recovery on the one hand, and on the other hand, however, unfastened basis, weak recovery and uneven growth co-exist. At the same time, with external risk and challenge increasing, China’s economic growth is obviously slowing down. As mentioned above, China’s economy will grow at a steady pace, the logistics industry is expected to go up steadily in 2014.

The adjustment of industry structure and transformation of development mode will be facilitated by the implementation of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for China in 2014. With the issuance of “medium and long term development planning”, the development environment and industry policies of logistics industry will be substantiated. After the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, logistics will benefit from the corresponding policies. Thus we estimate an overall increase in the logistics industry of China in the year 2014.

In 2014, the annual average value of LPI is expected to recover to the level in 2012, maintaining around at 54%; the value-added of logistics industry will reach 4.1 trillion Yuan and increase by 8% year-on-year; total value of social logistics is expected to be around 218.2 trillion Yuan, a 10% rise year-on-year; total social logistic cost is estimated to reach 10.4 trillion Yuan, increasing by 9% year-on-year. The year of 2014 will be the important year of investment on transportation and infrastructure, the growth of investment on communication and transportation will be over 25%.

Considering the potential uncertainties of both the domestic and international economic fundamentals in 2014, China’s economic growth will turn into a long-term transformation. On the one hand, the logistics industry might go through a possible ‘moderate increase phase’ in the context of the undetermined environment. On the other hand, a faster upgrade is anticipated to occur in the logistics industry due to the economic transformation. After the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the government will expand the opening-up of logistics industry market. Logistics enterprises at level A will develop rapidly. At the same time, reforms of railway transportation will improve the whole competence of China Railway Corporation. All of these will have a deep influence on China’s logistics market.

Considering the situations above, the following suggestions on the development of logistics industry in 2014 were proposed. Firstly, to deepen the opening-up of logistics industry. Secondly, to take measures to implement the logistics policy. Thirdly, to guide the scientific construction of logistics parks and give more support to logistics investment and finance. Fourthly, to put forward more preferential policies to comply with trend of multinational trade. Finally, to promote the upgrading and transformation of logistic enterprises to contribute to the development of other industries by innovation of service and technology.

Report source:Center for Forecasting Science (CEFS) , Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)

[Editor: Jack ]
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