Forecast on 2014 China’s Real Estate Prices
The central government has issued new policies to tighten real estate market regulation in the first half year of 2013, and proposed more strict regulation for the cities with too-fast growing real estate market. Various economic factors that will have impact on the housing prices in 2014 are provided below.
Firstly, the long-term factors include the new urbanization, household income and the adjustment of land supply.
a) The new urbanization has a close correlation with the development of real estate market. Rapid urbanization will have a great effect on the demand structure of real estate market, the spatial distribution and the balance between supply and demand. The real estate price will keep a steady rise with the development of new urbanization.
b) Sustainable increase in household income will lend supports to an upward trend of the housing price in the long term.
c) The adjustment of land supply policy has become the core factor that affects the supply of real estate market. The effective adjustment of land supply structure will contribute to keeping house prices from rising too fast and standardizing the real estate market.
Secondly, the short-term factors include economic situation, supply and demand, market expectations.
a) The macro-economy will run in a steady situation, which will contribute to the steady increase of real estate investment.
b) The rigid demand will still be the main demand of real estate market, which will increase the volume of sales in real estate market.
c) The supply of real estate market is adequate to satisfy the demand, which will standardize the real estate market.
d) The price expectation will be in a high level, which will contribute to a heavy trading volume.
Thirdly, policy factors include the long-term regulation mechanism, real estate tax and the integration system of low-rent housing and public rental housing.
a) The long-term regulation mechanism will be established, which will constrain housing prices from rising too fast and standardizing the real estate market.
b) It will be possible for central government to expand its property tax pilot program to more cities in 2014, which will be helpful to rein property prices and bring down asset bubbles.
c) The integration system of low-rent housing and public rental housing will probably be taken to increase the supply of real estate market and rationalize the housing price.
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