Forecast on 2014 Global Bulk Commodities Prices
Due to declining global economic growth rate and rising U.S. dollar in 2013, the global bulk commodity price has dropped slightly. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB (RJ/CRB) Index, one of the most cited indicators of global commodity prices, has reached 288 in 2013, down 4.5% year on year over 2012. WTI crude oil futures price was 98 U.S. dollars per barrel on average in 2013, up 4% from the average in 2012. LME copper futures price has dropped to 7352 U.S. dollars per ton, down 7.6% over 2012. Because the production and stock of corn and soybean have increased significantly, CBOT wheat, corn and soybean futures prices have declined dramatically to 690, 564, and 1352 U.S. cents per bushel, down 8.8%, 18%, and 7% over 2012.
In 2014, world economic growth is expected to pick up, but economic growth will be weak and face the risk of withdrawal from the third round of quantitative easing, known as QE3, and the debt-ceiling crisis of the United States. In 2014, U.S. will begin ending of QE3, and EU will keep loose monetary policy, so the U.S. dollar will rise steadily. Besides, the increasing oil supply of Non-OPEC countries may lower oil price. Global total supply of copper will continue to rise because of the increase in copper mining production. Furthermore, the stock of corn and soybeans will grow, which leads to lower prices.
Based on the above analysis, a few econometric models are proposed to forecast the prices of world commodity price in 2014. With an assumption of world economic growth picking up and the U.S. dollar rising moderately, world commodity price will drop slightly in 2014. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB (RJ/CRB) Index will fall from an average of 288 this year to 280 in 2014, down 3 percents from the average in 2013.
Because of the increasing oil supply of Non-OPEC countries, WTI crude oil futures price is expected to fluctuate between 85 and 105 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2014, and the average price will drop to 96 U.S. dollars per barrel, down 2% from the average in 2013. Global excess supply will restrain copper price, and LME copper futures will fall as much as 9 percent in 2014, reaching 6700 U.S. dollars per ton. For the same reason, the prices of CBOT wheat, corn and soybean futures will fall to 600, 430, and 1100 U.S. cents per bushel, down 13%, 24%, and 18% year-on-year, respectively. Moreover, the soybean futures price may face more downward pressure due to an increase in the planted area.
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