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Outlook on 2014 China’s Main Industries
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 2014-01-23 19:24 By:GMW.cn  BBS of GMW.CN

Outlook on 2014 China’s Main Industries

China’s main industry sectors have been running smoothly in 2013. With a series of policies to promote steady growth, structural adjustment and industrial reform being implemented, the downward pressure in industrial operation has been eased and the industrial economy has seen a good trend of stabilization. This report focuses on industries of automobile, steel and coal, analyzes their operations in 2013 and predicts their economy trends in 2014.

It is expected that the automobile industry will boom slightly in the first quarter of 2014 and then enter into a stable development phase. Econometric model predicts that China’s automobile production and sales will reach around by 22.1 million and 22 million in 2013, an increase by 14.7% and 14% respectively over last year. China’s automobile production and sales will reach approximately 24.2 million and 24.0 million respectively in 2014, an increasing by 9.5% and 9.2% over 2013. The growth rate will slow down compared to 2013. In the long run, as the government continues to double the efforts in air pollution control, new energy vehicles will inevitably lead the direction of future automobiles, and the high-end automobile market will probably witness rapid growth under the influence of “double restrictions” (vehicle purchase restriction and use restriction) policies, substantial discounts for luxury vehicles, and automobile upgrade demands. In addition, automobile consumers in the third-tier and four-tier cities are mostly the first-time buyers, showing great rigid demands. The large population base and low car ownership per capita will make these cities the major domestic automobile increment market.

Industry of Steel, It is expected that the steel industry will boom slightly at the beginning of 2014, as Chinese economy is starting to recover and the contradiction between supply and demand has seen a short sigh of relief. However, policy stimulus will be less likely to appear. Downstream industries like real estate, automobiles and home appliances can’t generate sufficient demand. Bank credit tightening may cause tension of corporate capital chain. Steel industry also has bottlenecks like irrational layout and overcapacity. So the motivation to promote industry towards sustainable growth is insufficient and the industry could hardly achieve fast growth in a short term. In 2014, steel industry capacity will be effectively suppressed because of economic restructuring and pollution control. Econometric models predicted that in 2013 China’s steel production reached approximately 1.056 billion tons, an increase of 10.7% over last year; crude steel production reached approximately 772 million tons, an increase of 7.7% over last year. In 2014, China’s steel production will reach approximately 1.12 billion tons, an increase of 6.3% over 2013; crude steel production will reach approximately 798 million tons, an increase of 3.4% over 2013.

Industry of Coal, It is expected that the coal industry will boom slightly at the beginning of 2014 because Chinese economy has shown a good trend of stabilization, cold weather increases coal demand in winter, and the international steam coal market rebounds. In the year 2014, a steady growth of Chinese economy will continue, which will cause a slight growth in coal demand. Coal production capacity will be further released and coal production will gradually rise slightly. But the coal industry still faces many uncertainties and risks, such as economy restructuring, loose situation in coal supply and demand and overcapacity. The operating pressures of coal industry still exist. It is predicted that China’s coal production in 2013 reached approximately 3.69 billion tons, an increase of 0.8% over 2012. In 2014, China’s coal production will reach 3.78 billion tons, an increase of 2.4% over 2013.

Report source:Center for Forecasting Science (CEFS) , Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)

[Editor: Jack ]
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