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Forecast on 2014 China’s Foreign Trade
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 2014-01-23 19:24 By:GMW.cn  BBS of GMW.CN

Forecast on 2014 China’s Foreign Trade

The exports of China in 2014 will benefit from the expected recovery of global demand. However, uncertainties caused by debt risk in developed countries, possible withdrawal of quantitative easing policies and the structural reforms in new emerging countries will hinder fast recovery of world economy and resulting in minor and steady growth rate of China’s exports. Growth of China’s imports will keep stable in 2014. Considering factors affecting China’s imports, domestic demand is expected to keep steady as that of the second half year of 2013, the world commodity prices will almost be the same as in 2013, so the import price index will be stable at around 100. Besides, import taxes will be reduced significantly in 2014, which will help in fostering the imports growth of China.

Both China’s exports and imports are expected to rise by around 8.2% in 2014, leaving the country with an increased trade surplus of 280 billion U.S. dollars. In the context of steady recovery of the United States economy and a low growth rate of exports from China to the United States in 2013, rapid growth for exports from China to the United States is expected to be around 8.5% in 2014. The imports from China to the United States are expected to be up around 10.8% in 2014. The growth rate of exports from China to European Union turned to be positive at the end of 2013, and this increasing trend will continue in 2014. The exports and imports from China to European Union are expected to rise by 4.0% and 6.0% in 2014, respectively.

For the major commodities, labor-intensive products will continue to maintain steady growth. In 2013, clothing, textiles and footwear rose by 11.3%, 11.7% and 8.4%, respectively, while their growth rates in 2014 are predicted to be around 11.4%, 10.8 % and 10.3 %. Mechanical and electrical products are still the main driving force of China's exports growth. In 2013 and 2014 the growth rates of mechanical and electrical products are around 7.3% and 9.0%, and the growth rate of its imports are around 7.3% and 8.2%. The growth rate of exports of high-tech products will be slower compared with last year because of high base effect, but it remains stable. In 2013 and 2014, the growth rates of exports of high-tech products are around 9.8% and 7.3%, while growth rates for its imports are around 10.1% and 7.5% respectively.

Report source:Center for Forecasting Science (CEFS) , Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)

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