Forecast on 2014 China’s Consumption and Investment
China’s consumption market will maintain a stable growth. The nominal growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods will be around 13.7% in 2014, slightly higher than that of 2013. China will also see a stable investment growth. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets will be around 20% in 2014, remaining the same as that of 2013.
Concerning quarterly growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods, it is expected to go up first and then turn down, with the highest point in the third quarter across 2014. The relevant policies will play dominant role in affecting China’s consumption. On one hand, the move to keep a frugal lifestyle and resolutely oppose extravagance across China since 2013 will be further implemented, which may objectively reduce both the government and enterprises’ consumption expenditures in 2014; On the other hand, the State Council of China released in August 2013 a guideline to promote information consumption. Driven by the guideline, as well as other factors, for example the Broad Band China Strategy, the accelerating e-business development, and the growing demand for relevant products by urbanization, the households’ consumption expenditures are expected to rise stably in the near future, probably with acceleration in growth rate.
The investment will be affected by the following factors in 2014. On one hand, China will continue to implement prudent monetary policies and proactive fiscal policies in 2014. Under these policies and in addition favored by the gradual payouts of reform bonus after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets will keep on rising slightly in the first quarter of 2014 over the fourth quarter of 2013; on the other hand, however, the problems of excess production capacity will continue to prevent the investment in fixed assets from fast growth across China, in particular in manufacturing industry. As far as the real estate industry is concerned, if the macro-control policies are further implemented in 2014 as previous years, there may be difficulties for real estate firms to obtain enough loans and further affect their investment in fixed assets. Influenced by the factors mentioned above, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets is expected to turn down since the second quarter of 2014, with an annual growth rate around 20%.
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