Forecast on 2014 China’s Prices
The annual CPI in 2014 is expected to rise by around 3.1%. The annual PPI and PPIRM are expected to rise by around 0.1% and decline by around 0.3% respectively. The annual growth rates of CPI, PPI and PPIRM of 2014 are higher than those in 2013, the rates go up in the first half year, while slow down in the second half year. In 2014, the dominant trend for China’s CPI is increasing, but the insufficient demand will prevent the overall price from fast increase and some uncertain factors may lead to a large fluctuation of China’s prices.
The increasing factors will dominate China’s price level and trend in 2014. Firstly, the rise of agricultural products price, labor price and resource products price will bring an upward pressure on prices in the long run. Secondly, the rise of housing price will stimulate a strong impact on price of consumer goods by influencing expectations of inflation. Thirdly, the reform of economic relationships will also bring pressures on inflation. Besides, due to relatively loose macroeconomic liquidity and high expectations of inflation, the price level in China will go up in 2014.
However, some factors will slow down China’s inflation. Firstly, the insufficient demand growth, caused by the slow pace of economic growth, will constrain the prices from rising too fast. Secondly, the price of industrial products will not rise quickly because of the overcapacity of industrial production. Thirdly, the slowdown of resident income growth and the intense competition in the commodity market will suppress the rising of consumer prices. Besides, the weak growth of international market demand will also reduce upward pressure on prices.
In 2014, several uncertain factors need more attentions.
Firstly, the trend of international commodity prices will be affected by many uncertain factors. The trend of international primary commodity will determine the imported inflation pressures of China’s prices in 2014.
Secondly, the climate has a great impact on China’s agricultural products price. The reduction of agricultural outputs will raise food prices and accelerate the overall inflation in China.
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