Forecast on 2014 China’s GDP Growth Rate
It is expected that there are three phases of China’s economy from the beginning of reform and opening-up to the mid-21st century. The first phase, from 1978 to 2011, is a rapid growth phase, and the average annual growth rate of GDP is close to 10%. The second phase, from 2012 to 2031, is a phase of medium and high rate growth, and the potential average annual growth rate is 7% to 8%. The third stage, from 2032 to the mid-21st century, is a phase of medium rate growth, and the potential average annual growth rate is 5% to 6%, which is nearly equal to the average annual growth rate of developing countries.
China's economy has seen rapid growth in the past 30 years. In recent years “China’s fast growth” was over due to the following reasons, scale expansion of China’s GDP, decline of demographic bonus, economic restructuring and the slow recovery of world economy, and so on. China economy has entered into a phase of medium and high rate growth.
In 2014, China will sustain a steady economic growth, and its GDP growth rate is predicted at about 7.6%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in 2013. It is predicted that the growth rate of the primary industry will be around by 3.6% and that of the secondary and tertiary industry 7.6% and 8.5% respectively in 2014. The final consumption and the investment will contribute 3.7 and 3.8 percentage points to China’s GDP growth rate respectively, while the net exports will contribute 0.1 percentage point. In terms of China's quarterly GDP growth rate, it tends to go down first and then up. The GDP growth rate will be 7.4% in the first half year, and 7.7% in the second half year. The maximum difference of quarterly GDP growth rate will be within 0.5 percentage points.
There were several problems of China's economy in 2013, such as, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth dropped significantly, economic growth became more dependent on investment, the pressure of economic structural adjustment increased, and small and micro firms had operating difficulties and sharp decline in profits. How to deal with these problems will run a significant impact on China's economy in the upcoming period.
For healthy development of economy, China must stick to the path of reform and opening up, and implement the decision on ‘Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms’ approved at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China(CPC) Central Committee. We propose the following recommendations, first, to set ensuring steady economic growth as one main task in 2014; second, to implement prudent monetary policies and proactive fiscal policies; and the third to maintain the sustainable and healthy development of real estate industry.
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