Russia Realigns National Development Goals amid Pandemic

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed the Executive Order on the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation through 2030, outlining Russia’s national development goals in the lead up to 2030, with specific targets to be attained in economic development, education, urban development, and digitalization, etc. Given the fact that the decree was signed in July, it’s also known as the “July Decree”.

Putin signed the July Decree

In the July Decree released on July 21，2020, the Information Bureau of Russia’s Kremlin laid out a range of national development goals for the period up to 2030 in a bid to achieve breakthroughs in development, increase population, and improve living standards.

In the economic area, the country aims to register a higher GDP growth rate than the world’s average while maintaining macroeconomic stability by 2030, an actual growth rate of investment in fixed assets no less than 70% as compared to that of 2020, and a growth rate of export of non-energy and non-raw-material products in real terms at least 70%.

In the public welfare area, it strives to achieve sustainable population growth and provide healthcare, ensure steady income growth and a pension growth rate no lower than inflation, alleviate poverty by reducing poverty to half of that in 2017, increase the average life expectancy to 78 years, and raise the proportion of the people engaging in systemic physical exercise to 70%.

In the education area, it intends to deliver better education to its people and offer opportunities and platforms for their development, drive elementary and secondary schools to make it into the world’s top 10 by 2030, and take measures such as putting in place a well-functioning system of higher education to make it one of the world’s top ten countries in terms of overall scope of scientific research and development.

In urban development, it’s committed to providing a comfortable and safe living environment by making its urban environment quality index 50% higher than its current level, enhancing road construction in its mega city clusters to have at least 85% up-to-standard and high-quality road networks in the largest city, and establishing and consolidating a system for disposing of solid waste to halve its total amount across all dumpsites, in the lead up to 2030.

In digitalization, it’s dedicated to raising the share of electronic public services of great social significance to 95% and the proportion of households with access to broadband Internet to 97% by 2030, and investing fourfold domestic solutions in the information technology industry as compared to those in 2019.

Putin also required the Russian Government to revise national programmes before October 30， 2020 to be realigned with national goals and submitted for review to the Presidential Council for Strategic Development and Priority Projects.

From the May 2018 Decree to the July Decree

In May 2018, marking the start of Putin’s fourth presidential term, he signed and issued the well-known May 2018 Decree that set Russia’s development goals and strategic tasks for its society, economy, education, and science and technology for the period up to 2024. Just half a year ago, on January 15, the president still demonstrated full confidence in the decree in his 2020 State of the Nation address, where he expected the country’s GDP growth rate to outstrip the world’s average by 2021, which would require the start of a new investment cycle and dedication to creating jobs, building infrastructure, and boosting the industrial, agricultural, and service sectors.

The fact that the July Decree postponed the timeframe scheduled for Russia’s GDP growth rate to surpass the world’s average for approximately a decade and abandoned the target of making Russia one of the top five economies in the world, can be explained by the country’s timely move for proactive adaptation and strategic adjustment in the shadow of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Given the difficulty in getting rid of the pandemic in the short term, reducing the 12 national development goals set out in the May 2018 Decree to 5 set forth in the July Decree, the media believed, would be more favorable to strategic priority concentration and indicative of more practical flexibility.

Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development projected an approximate 4.8% drop of its GDP this year due to the pandemic, while the International Monetary Fund predicted a 6.6% fall.

“The worst has now passed”

The Kremlin concluded based on expert assessment that Russia has passed the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. “We have now passed the worst and attained one of the best results globally, including mortality and testing system,” said Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

In the meantime, the economic downturn has been curbed in Russia. As is shown in the report released by its Ministry of Economic Development, the country’s GDP declined by 6.4% in June, compared to 12% and 10.7% in April and May respectively.

To implement the July Decree, Putin required the Russian economy to undergo a long-term structural transformation and the country to achieve the major goals of its development in a brand new state, especially those concerning the well-being of the people and their families across the country. As instructed by Putin, the Mishustin administration has to maintain stable economic development in the long term as it grapples with pressing challenges. Mishustin has made a decision to resume international flights based on the pandemic situations, infection rates, and principles of reciprocity, which are expected to take off from Moscow, Moscow Oblast, St. Petersburg, and Rostov-on-Don starting from August 1this year. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that Russia planned to reinstate the flights to and from the UK, Turkey, and Tanzania.