Latin America groping for path of development through reforms

In history, the internal and foreign affairs of Latin American and Caribbean countries have been deeply influenced by the United States, making them somewhat dependent on the U.S., with limited autonomy. In recent years, as the world has accelerated towards multipolarity, the waning influence and control of the United States have led Latin American and Caribbean countries to awaken, with a continuous increase in their autonomy. This trend is particularly evident in 2023, manifesting in two main aspects.

Firstly, Latin American countries are pursuing diversified and autonomous diplomacy, with a rising trend of distancing from or even opposing the United States. The current "Pink Tide" in Latin America, compared to the intense anti-American sentiment in the first wave of the "Pink Tide" in the first decade of this century, still maintains a certain distance from the United States, and in some issues, takes a stance explicitly against the U.S. In major events such as the Ukraine crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Latin American countries resist U.S. pressure and adopt positions different from the United States.

Conflicts of interest between Latin American countries and the United States are on the rise. Not only the strongly anti-American radical leftist countries like Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua but even right-wing-led countries like the Dominican Republic openly say "no" to the U.S., citing issues such as labor problems and Haitian immigration. Long-time U.S. ally Colombia openly contradicts the U.S. on bilateral trade agreements and anti-drug policies. Brazilian President Lula has repeatedly stated the intention to settle trade with China in local currencies and proposed the creation of a common currency among Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) countries to resist the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Mexico's conflicts with the U.S. intensify on immigration and trade issues, and Honduras, despite U.S. resistance, establishes diplomatic relations with China and swiftly arranges a presidential visit to China. Central American Parliament, despite U.S. pressure, revokes the so-called "legislative observer" status of the Taiwan region's "Legislative Yuan" and accepts the National People's Congress of China as a permanent observer. Salvadoran President Bukele firmly resists U.S. criticism of its so-called "dictatorial tendencies" and "democratic regression." This year also marks the 200th anniversary of the implementation of the Monroe Doctrine by the United States, with leaders of many Latin American countries openly criticizing the doctrine.

Additionally, Latin American and Caribbean countries are actively strengthening cooperation with European and Asia-Pacific countries, promoting diversified diplomacy, and resisting U.S. interference and control. With the rapid development of China-Latin America relations, China has become an important partner for Latin American countries, and China's various initiatives and concepts have received strong support from Latin American countries. This year, breaking through U.S. suppression, Latin American countries further strengthened comprehensive cooperation with China, with leaders from 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries visiting China, demonstrating their independent and autonomous stance.

Secondly, Latin American countries are enhancing unity and cooperation, and there are new developments in regional integration, weakening the Pan-American system and strengthening the construction of a Latin American system. For a long time, the Pan-American system centered around the Organization of American States has been a crucial institutional platform for U.S. intervention in Latin American affairs. In recent years, criticism and resistance towards the Pan-American system by Latin American countries have become increasingly apparent. For example, in September 2022, many Latin American countries refused to participate in the 9th Summit of the Americas to protest against the U.S. not inviting Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. This year, regional integration in Latin America has shown an upward trend. After the Lula government took office, Brazil re-engaged with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), and overall cooperation in Latin America returned to a normal track. The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) was reactivated, and a new summit was held in June. The Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) recently held a meeting, admitting Bolivia as a full member. To address common challenges, Mexico convened meetings of regional countries on inflation and immigration issues in April and October. Mexican President Lopez Obrador has repeatedly stated that the Organization of American States should be dissolved, and former Argentine President Fernandez has also proposed restructuring the organization.

Political Changes Accelerate Evolution

From a reform perspective, the political changes in Latin America this year have accelerated, highlighting political polarization and party fragmentation, with intense ideological struggles between left and right. Currently, most countries are governed by the left, but right-wing forces remain strong, holding sway in congresses or local governments and imposing constraints on government administration. Many governments face difficulties in formulating effective solutions in the face of political turmoil and economic downturn, arousing strong dissatisfaction among the people, who express their displeasure by punishing ruling parties through elections. The eagerness for change among the people objectively promotes the rise of anti-establishment forces. In several major elections this year, only Paraguay's ruling party achieved consecutive terms, while opposition parties won in Ecuador, Guatemala, and Argentina.

Although the struggle between left and right remains an effective perspective for analyzing Latin American politics, in many cases, the traditional boundaries between left and right are becoming increasingly blurred, with a trend of mutual transformation and integration. In addition to the left-right struggle, disputes between the executive and legislative branches and between central and regional governments have also become prominent. For example, the Peruvian parliament impeached then-President Castillo multiple times last year, leading to his removal from office, and the relationship with current President Borja is also tense. Former President Correa of Ecuador announced the dissolution of the congress and early elections in May under the "cross-death" decree. The Santa Cruz province of Bolivia has had a long-standing strained relationship with the central government, and at the end of last year, the provincial governor Camacho was arrested, triggering large-scale protests this year. Such turmoil is closely related to the specific political ecology of each country, presenting different facets but still showing certain commonalities. Latin American countries are in a period of transition, exploring new paths of development and governance models. These upheavals reflect the difficulties and challenges of this transformation.

Since the late 1970s, the political system of representative democracy and separation of powers has become the mainstream choice for Latin American countries. While elections and power transitions proceed orderly, the drawbacks of low democratic quality and ineffective governance have become evident. Whether it is the traditional left-wing governance model or the right-wing governance model following neoliberalism, they struggle to address the various crises currently faced. This objectively requires Latin American countries to rethink the relationship between administration and legislation, government and society, and government and the market. After assuming office, Salvadoran President Bukele has been dedicated to strengthening the executive power of the president and improving the governance efficiency of the government. Despite being criticized by the United States for "democratic regression," his achievements in combating corruption and tackling gangs have been significant, maintaining high approval ratings. The "Bukele model" can be seen as a typical example of Latin American countries reshaping the powers of administration and legislation within the framework of democracy. In the economic field, Mexico and Chile have increased the degree of nationalization of lithium resources, and other countries have strengthened the role of the government in economic development. These cases can be seen as instances of Latin American countries redefining the relationship between the government and the market.

In addition to seeking reform on domestic agendas, Latin

American countries are actively promoting the transformation of the global governance system. After taking office, Lula attached importance to relations with developing countries, actively promoted the expansion of BRICS, and repeatedly proposed the abolition of the U.S. dollar hegemony. Faced with Argentina's debt problem, many Latin American countries supported Argentina in debt restructuring and criticized the aid model led by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Fragile economies in Central America and the Caribbean proposed replacing the current criterion of per capita income with a "fragility index" for international aid. In the field of climate change, Lula specifically criticized developed countries for not fulfilling their responsibilities, and countries in Central America and the Caribbean also hoped to reform existing mechanisms to obtain more compensation funds.

Mutual Learning and Progress with China

In 2023, China-Latin America relations continued to operate at a high level, with frequent highlights. Against the backdrop of the rise of the "Global South," the exchange and mutual learning between Chinese-style modernization and "Latin American-style modernization" have taken place, bringing China-Latin America relations to a new level.

Firstly, top-level diplomatic exchanges have guided the direction, upgrading bilateral relations. In 2023, high-level exchanges between China and Latin America have attracted attention. Leaders from ten countries, including Brazil, Honduras, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Barbados, Suriname, Cuba, and Uruguay, visited China. President Xi Jinping met with Mexican President Lopez and Peruvian President Borja in San Francisco, USA. The frequent top-level diplomacy has played an important guiding role in the development of bilateral relations. In addition, China's circle of friends in Latin America continues to expand. Honduras established diplomatic relations with China and arranged a presidential visit within less than three months of establishing diplomatic ties. China and Venezuela upgraded their bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, established strategic partnerships with Colombia and Nicaragua, and established a comprehensive strategic partnership with Uruguay. Moreover, under the framework of building a China-Latin America community with a shared future, China deepened cooperation with Cuba.

Secondly, in-depth mutual learning in modernization, and governance and policy exchanges have become new growth points. Since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Chinese-style modernization has become a hot topic globally. To promote mutual learning and exchanges between China and Latin America in modernization, governance and policy exchanges have become increasingly active. In March of this year, the Communist Party of China hosted the World Political Parties High-Level Dialogue, with the active participation of political parties from many Latin American countries. In April, the 5th China-Peru Party Theoretical Symposium was held in Beijing. In July, the 3rd China-Latin America Poverty Reduction and Development Forum was held.

Thirdly, economic and trade relations operate at a high level, and cooperation on free trade agreements is steadily advancing. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, the trade volume between China and Latin America reached 2.835 trillion yuan from January to October 2023, a 6% increase from the same period last year. In terms of investment, Chinese companies actively invest in Latin America, especially in new energy and the digital economy. To promote trade development, China and Latin America actively promote the process of free trade agreement cooperation. On May 11th, China and Ecuador formally signed a free trade agreement. From May 30th to June 2nd, the fifth round of negotiations for the China-Peru Free Trade Agreement upgrade was held in Beijing. On July 4th, China and Honduras launched negotiations on a free trade agreement. On August 31st, China signed a free trade agreement with Nicaragua, making Nicaragua the fifth free trade partner of China in the Latin American region. In addition, China initiated free trade agreement negotiations with El Salvador last year, and negotiations on a free trade agreement with Uruguay are also underway.

Fourthly, the deepening of the "Belt and Road" initiative, and the development of cooperation are improving in quality and efficiency. Following Honduras joining the "Belt and Road" initiative this year, 22 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have signed cooperation documents with China. Countries such as Cuba, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay have signed specific cooperation plans with China. Latin American countries actively participated in the third Belt and Road International Cooperation Summit Forum. Chilean President participated in the forum for three consecutive times. Under the framework of the "Belt and Road" initiative, aid projects and market cooperation projects are advancing simultaneously, with landmark large projects and "small but beautiful" projects complementing each other, bringing tangible benefits to the people in Latin America. As of September this year, China has implemented more than 200 infrastructure projects in Latin America, including several thousand kilometers of roads, railways, light rails, over 100 schools, hospitals, stadiums, nearly a hundred bridges, tunnels, dozens of airports, ports, and more than 30 power stations and power plants, providing nearly a million job opportunities locally.

Fifthly, in-depth international cooperation, and the "voice of the South" is becoming louder. Both China and Latin American countries are developing countries, and they have broad consensus and common interests in dealing with international hotspots, global challenges, and promoting the reform of the global governance system. China and Brazil closely coordinate under the framework of BRICS, supporting countries like Argentina to join the BRICS family. Latin American countries actively support the "Three Global Initiatives," with many countries joining the "Friends of the Global Development Initiative" group. On hotspot issues such as the Ukraine crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, both sides have actively consulted and reached extensive consensus. On issues such as climate change and debt relief, China actively supports the positions of Latin American countries, supports Brazil's bid to host the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2025, and supports Latin American fragile economies in establishing a "climate compensation fund," among other demands, urging developed countries to provide more funds and technical support to developing countries.

The autonomous reforms in Latin America and the mutual learning and progress with China are mutually reinforcing and mutually promoting. It is precisely because of the increasing autonomy and the drive for reform in Latin America that these countries pay more attention to China, hoping to share opportunities and learn from Chinese experiences to better advance their domestic and diplomatic agendas. Conversely, the mutual learning and progress in China-Latin America relations will further promote the autonomy and reform in Latin America. In the context of the deep evolution of the century-long changes, China and Latin American countries, as members of the "Global South," will only have more common interests, closer common positions, and a greater common mission. In 2024, Brazil will host the 20th G20 Summit, Peru will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Informal Meeting, and the China-Latin America Forum will celebrate its tenth anniversary. Latin America will attract more global attention. I believe that in the coming year, with the frequent occurrence of the "Latin American moment," China-Latin America relations will reach new heights.