What should world look to for Israeli-Palestinian conflict to be alleviated

A new round of conflict between Israel and Palestine continues to spill over, stirring up turbulent waves in the Red Sea.

On January 3rd, the United States and 12 other countries issued a joint statement warning the Houthi armed group that if it continued to threaten the security of the Red Sea region, the organization would bear the consequences. However, this did not deter the Houthi armed group; instead, it prompted them to choose a more aggressive response. Just one day later, the Houthi armed group detonated an unmanned boat loaded with explosives in the Red Sea, only a few miles away from commercial ships and US Navy vessels.

The Houthi armed group, which has been involved in Yemen's civil war for decades, has attracted global attention due to its recent confrontation with the United States.

The Houthi armed group is an internal Shiite armed organization in Yemen with a clear sectarian color since its establishment, aiming to revive the Zaidi Shiite Imamate (known as the Zaidi sect). In 1962, after the "Free Officers" organization in North Yemen overthrew the Imamate rule, the Zaidi sect, which had long dominated North Yemen since the 9th century, was gradually marginalized. At the same time, Salafism and Wahhabism, supported by Saudi Arabia, continued to infiltrate. In order to revive the Zaidi sect and counter Saudi influence, under the influence of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the Zaidi sect established the "Believing Youth" organization, the predecessor of the Houthi armed group, in Saada Province, northern Yemen, in 1992.

The political goals of the Houthi armed group are not very clear. Although it has an anti-US and anti-Israel stance, considering that Shiites account for only one-third of Yemen's total population, its ultimate political goal may not necessarily be to emulate Iran in establishing a "theocratic state" but rather to enjoy full political rights in Yemen's political landscape. In 2011, the Houthi armed group participated in national peace talks, demanding more power in the new government to change the long-standing marginalization of the Zaidi tribes in the political and economic fields.

In the Middle East region, besides the Houthi armed group, there are many similar non-state actors, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shiite militias. These non-state actors in the Middle East demonstrate a significant characteristic in military confrontation with the United States, Israel, and others, namely their asymmetric costs and high mobility in action, making it difficult for the latter to defend comprehensively with military superiority and obtain absolute security.

In recent years, US strikes against pro-Iranian forces in Syria and Iraq, Israeli attacks on Hamas, and Saudi Arabia's large-scale airstrikes against the Houthi armed group have not had the intended deterrent effect. In addition, once the United States launches an attack on the Houthi armed group, even if Iran does not intervene directly, the retaliatory actions of anti-Western or anti-Israeli militia organizations in the Middle East "resistance axis" may drag the United States back into the Middle East, contrary to its national security strategy of "great power competition". This also determines that the United States has a lower willingness to further military action in the Red Sea against the Houthi armed group. In fact, after sinking three Houthi armed group small boats, the United States has shown caution and repeatedly stated that it was "in self-defense."

From the perspective of the international situation, extraterritorial powers cannot instrumentalize the security issues in the Middle East for their own geopolitical interests. The marginalization of the Palestinian issue by the United States in order to achieve offshore balance and maximize strategic interests in the Middle East is the fundamental reason for the current Israel-Palestine conflict and its spillage into the Red Sea region. Any regional peace process that marginalizes the Palestinian issue not only cannot bring fair and just treatment to the long-suffering Palestinian people but also inevitably triggers repeated resistance from oppressed populations and may lead to violent extremism. Various forces in the region will also form stance differentiation and opposition around this issue, even resorting to the use of force.

Therefore, the international community must push for the Israel-Palestine issue to return to the core of the Middle East issue and prioritize it on the international agenda. Only by seeking a comprehensive, fair, and lasting solution to the Palestinian issue based on the "two-state solution" can the Middle East truly achieve lasting peace, universal security, and ensure the safe and unimpeded trade routes for international goods and energy.

Currently, actively promoting an immediate ceasefire and stopping the war in the Gaza Strip to alleviate the humanitarian crisis is a top priority. The Red Sea crisis is a security overflow of Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip. To resolve the Red Sea crisis, the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip must be addressed immediately. The new conflict has resulted in 22,000 Palestinians killed and nearly 60,000 injured in the Gaza Strip. Due to the blockade causing a shortage of aid supplies, 40% of the population faces the risk of famine. If the direction is shifted away from this and further attacks are launched against the Houthi armed group, it will not only fail to calm the Red Sea but may also drag other regions and forces in the Middle East into conflict and turmoil, causing great upheaval in the entire Middle East region.

(This article is contributed by Wangjian, the director of the Institution of International Affairs of Shanghai Social Sciences Academy)