Economist predicts Q1 growth of 4.5%-4.8%

Photo taken on Feb. 5, 2024 shows a view of a Spring Festival fair by the Yellow River in Lanzhou, northwest China's Gansu Province. (Photo/Xinhua)

BEIJING - On March 14, Yan Se, Associate Professor at the Guanghua School of Management and Deputy Director of the Institute of Economic Policy Research at Peking University, made an assessment of China's economic situation in early 2024 and provided policy recommendations.

He stated that the annual growth rate in 2024 is expected to achieve the target of around 5 percent, with the first quarter's growth expected to reach 4.5-4.8 percent; domestic consumption and export have rebounded, indicating a recovery in both domestic and external demands, leading to a stable and positive economic trend in the first quarter.

During the 2024 Spring Festival, consumer demand surged, boosting confidence in the gradual recovery of consumption. Over the eight-day Spring Festival holiday, domestic tourism saw 474 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 34.3 percent, with total domestic tourism expenditure reaching 6.32687 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.3 percent.

Professor Yan said that export growth in the first two months of 2024 exceeded expectations. From January to February China's exports increased by 7.1 percent year-on-year, with higher export growth to Africa, Russia, as well as ASEAN and “Belt and Road” countries.

Yan believes that boosting consumption requires expanding household income through multiple channels and stimulating the real estate and stock markets. Additionally, reducing market uncertainty through the establishment of a stable policy environment can encourage foreign investment to make long-term planning and investment decisions. Regarding foreign trade, it is essential to ensure continuity with major developed-country markets and continue expanding exports to developing countries.