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中国褐皮书:中国经济实际表现优于官方数据

The picture of China’s economy slowing in the second quarter is misleading, or even inaccurate, with retail sales and investment actually stronger than the official data show, according to the China Beige Book.

    中国褐皮书(China Beige Book)指出,中国经济第二季度放缓的图片存在误导性,甚至可以说是不准确的,实际上,零售销售额和投资比官方数据显示的更强势。

“The retail sector may be seeing a turn higher, with profit and investment growth improving,” CBB said in a report, adding that slowing seen in official data in May reflects not the current situation but weakness seen earlier this year and late last year. “The sector may already be emerging from the troubles Beijing is just now introducing publicly.”

    中国褐皮书(CBB)在一份报告里指出:“随着利润和投资增长情况改善,零售业可能会出现转机,达到更高水平。”它还指出,5月份官方数据显示的经济放缓反映的并不是当前的经济形势,而是今年早些时候和去年年底出现的疲软。“该行业可能已经摆脱了刚公布的官方报告里的一些麻烦。”

Similarly for investment, official statistics are lacking as they undercount retail spending, according to the private survey by CBB International, which collects anecdotal accounts similar to those in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Including this shows capital spending is very healthy in most sectors, the report said, noting that official fixed-asset investment “reflects only part of the story — panning the camera to a wider angle shows strong capex in multiple sectors.”

    中国褐皮书国际(CBB International)类似与美联储褐皮书,专门搜集一些统计轶事,据其私家调查显示,投资也是类似的情况,由于官方数据少算了零售支出,所以官方数据是有缺失的。报告指出,这表明大部分行业的资本支出非常健康,官方固定资产投资“只反映出整个事件的一部分——从更广的角度看,多个行业的资本支出表现强劲。”

The picture of China’s economy slowing just as the trade war with the U.S. heats up has prompted growing concern, with stocks falling and the central bank stepping in this week to boost credit to smaller companies and help firms deal with debt. Analysts expect the bank to further ease policy to help cope with slowing growth and offset the effects of a crackdown on shadow banking.

    这张关于中国经济因中美贸易战升温而放缓的图片已经引起越来越多的担忧,股市下跌,央行本周也介入加紧对小公司的信贷并帮助企业处理债务。分析师们预计央行将进一步放松政策以应对增长放缓,抵消打击影子银行带来的影响。

However, while non-bank “shadow” institutions are being squeezed for money, the Beige Book reports that companies are still borrowing heavily, and interest rates have fallen, which should lower repayment costs. Corporate borrowing was higher when compared to both the first quarter and the same period in 2017, according to the report, while “interest rates fell nationally to lower than a year ago in every major sub-sector,” it said.

    然而,尽管非银行的“影子”机构也正被榨取资金,褐皮书报告指出,许多公司仍在大量借款,利率下降,这将降低还款成本。报告还指出,与第一季度和2017年同期相比,企业借款更高,而“利率在全国范围内下降到低于一年前的每个主要子行业。”

One area of concern was manufacturing, with the report noting that “a trade conflict with the U.S. would hit what is already metastasizing into a sore spot for the Chinese economy.” The immediate problem is that manufacturing and commodities export orders in the quarter showed considerable weakness, and the outlook is worse, the report said.

    一个值得关注的领域就是制造业,报告指出,“与美国的贸易冲突将打击到中国经济的痛处。”目前的问题是,制作业与商品出口订单在本季度表现相当疲软,且前景更糟。

Notably, the situation for steel deteriorated. “The share of steel firms reporting improved conditions fell hard in every major category, from revenue and profit growth to output, investment, and hiring,” CBB said. “After nine quarters of record profit-making, and expanding production to take advantage of it, steel may be nearing a turn.”

    尤其钢铁行业的形势也恶化了。 “钢铁企业的份额在每个主要类别都下降得厉害,从收入和利润增长到产出、投资和招聘。” 中国褐皮书(CBB)指出,“经过几个季度的盈利记录,扩大生产并利用这一优势,钢铁业可能也临近转折点了。”

[ Editor: Zhang Zhou ]