China’s Brokering of the Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement Boosts the Middle East Trend of Peaceful Development

Since the Joint statement by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran was issued on March 10, not only have relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have long been at odds and cut off for seven years, rapidly warmed up as the two sides actively interact to quickly restore diplomatic relations, but its spillover effect is giving a strong boost to the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Détente between regional parties, especially Iran and the Gulf states and the Arab world in general, Syria and the Arab states, and Turkey and Egypt, has been accelerating, and hotspot issues like the civil war in Yemen, which has been influenced by Saudi Arabia and Iran, have also cooled down significantly.

As a result, China’s successful mediation of the rapprochement is not only de-escalating tensions, reshaping the political landscape and strategic culture in the region that have long been characterized by conflict and confrontation, but also making China’s long-promoted ideas and approaches of peaceful development, consultation and dialogue, tolerance, and mutual understanding a shared choice. More importantly, détente and development are increasingly becoming a trend in the region.

Saudi-Iranian reconciliation gives strong impetus to the Middle East

Long-term conflict and confrontation have turned the Middle East into the region with the most conflicts in the contemporary world, depriving the region of a peaceful environment for development. Confrontational thinking, security dilemmas and zero-sum games have become the deep-rooted strategic culture there, resulting in the lack of mutual trust among countries which severely constrained social and economic development, and undermined international cooperation and economic integration in the region.

Since the Arab Spring in 2011, conflict and confrontation, and zero-sum games have characterized the Middle East, forming various political identities manifested by blocs, ideologies and proxies, and resulting in ethnic and sectarian confrontations, the most representative of which is seen between Sunnis and Shiites, backed respectively by Saudi Arabia and Iran; and the tension between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. As a result, Saudi Arabia cut it diplomatic relations with Iran in 2016, and severed its ties with Qatar in 2017; Turkey and Saudi Arabia have long been wrestling over the Muslim Brotherhood; Besides, the proxy games between regional powers in Yemen, Iraq and Syria are all manifestations of the confrontational landscape in the region.

In this context, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement facilitated by China and the détente between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are expected to clear the mess left by the Arab Spring, and jumpstart a regional trend of seeking development at home and détente with others, thereby promoting the peaceful development of the region.

The reconciliation will, first and foremost, help resolve the structural conflicts that have long plagued the Gulf and the Middle East region.

Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, the confrontation between the two regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, has shaped the Gulf and even the entire Middle East, and led to ethnic, sectarian and in particular, geopolitical tensions and proxy games over hotspot issues. After the Arab Spring in 2011, tensions between the two sides have remained, diplomatic relations were cut off in 2016, causing proxy wars in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen.

Since 2021, signs of de-escalation emerged as both countries have been battered by domestic and diplomatic stalemate. Several rounds of dialogue took place in Iraq but to no avail, until Beijing pitched in and brokered the reconciliation. Endogenous drivers aside, the mediating role China played was crucial. It certainly marks a successful try of the Global Security Initiative China has proposed. After all, the rapprochement is of great strategic significance as it has led directly to the easing of tensions between Iran, Syria and the Arab world. Regional players are quickly improving their relations, and the positive impact is also felt in Syria, Iraq and Yemen with regards to some hotspot issues.

As another direct impact, Saudi-Turkey tensions on the Muslim Brotherhood are easing across the board, too.

The Muslim Brotherhood was in power shortly in Egypt before removed by the coup d’etat led by army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The Muslim Brotherhood had gained the support of Turkey and Qatar, but was opposed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE – a rift that eventually led to Saudi Arabia cutting its diplomatic ties with Qatar in 2017. Since 2021, however, Egypt’s relations with Turkey, Qatar and the UAE had started to warm up. Since 2022, there has been frequent high-level exchanges among Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But only recently, thanks to the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation, Turkey has accelerated its pace of mending ties with Egypt. To some extent, the reconciliation has set the diplomatic tone of détente and dialogue, and will help improve relations among regional powers.

In addition, the rapprochement is also conducive to transforming the development model of Middle Eastern countries, who have long been exploring a path of prosperity and national rejuvenation, but the road to modernization has been extremely bumpy and tortuous. At present, seeking transformation and refocusing on development have become the consensus of the region in the post- Arab Spring era. Arab countries, especially the Gulf States, Turkey and Iran, have all formulated a series of development plans and visions. Therefore, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement will undoubtedly scale up economic and trade cooperation in the entire Middle East.

China’s diplomacy in full alignment to the needs of Middle Eastern countries

Western strategists, even Henry Kissinger included, are still accustomed to interpreting the rapprochement from the lens of geopolitical games, and they see China’s mediation as an important sign of its rising influence in the region and a serious weakening of US hegemony there, as well as a major development in the geopolitical landscape. Unsurprisingly, it will be difficult for the West to understand how China managed to broker the rapprochement, as China has adopted a very different philosophy, one that is contrary to the “skilled” western practices of divide and rule, coalition politics, bloc confrontation, democratic transformation and proxy wars, which have caused so much harm.

Due to historical legacies of colonialism, hegemony, power politics and internal conflicts, the Middle East has long been characterized by confrontations fueled by external influences. From the divide and rule by western colonists in modern times, to the mandate system during the two world wars; from bloc confrontation and proxy wars during the Cold War to the “democratic transformation” and the “war on terror” under the unipolar hegemony of the US, and then to the Gulf War, Afghanistan War, Iraq War, and wars in Libya and Syria – one can hardly single out any one of these that is not a result of internal contradictions fueled by interferences of western powers.

Due to high degrees of external dependency and prolonged regional confrontation, Middle Eastern countries lack autonomy in their diplomacy, and a regional environment and mechanism for peaceful development was missing, which led to the vicious cycle of chaos and economic stalemate. That explains the rising extremism and rampant terrorism in the region, and the fact that this is a region with the most serious security, development and governance deficits in the world.

China does not have the panacea, as speculated by outsiders, in brokering the rapprochement. Rather the secret lies in China’s long commitment to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and its historical friendship and deep trust with all parties in the Middle East based on mutual respect and assistance. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the concept of a community of shared future for all, and the new type of international relations and global partnership it proposed, the Global Security Initiative (GSI), Global Development Initiative (GDI) and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) are catering to the needs of the Middle East, a region long battered by wars and confrontations, ethnic conflicts, religious disputes and civilizational divisions.

China has been playing an increasingly more constructive role in the region since entering the new era. On the diplomatic front, China has maintained friendly cooperation with Arab countries, Iran, Turkey and Israel at the same time, and has established different forms of strategic partnerships with more than a dozen Middle Eastern countries. On the economic front, China has adhered to the BRI principles of extensive consultation, wide contribution and shared benefit in carrying out practical cooperation in the fields of infrastructure, new energy, IT and aerospace. On the social and cultural front, China respects the paths and systems of Middle Eastern countries and the diversity of civilizations in the region, and has actively exchanged governance experiences and carried out people-to-people exchanges in various fields, setting the example of mutual appreciation of civilizations. In the field of security, China adheres to the new concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and the approach of promoting security through development. Guided by such philosophy, China has actively engaged in peacekeeping, fighting terrorism and pirates in the Middle East with a view to strengthen regional security. In dealing with hotspot issues, China has always upheld justice and fairness in seeking political resolution of issues through solutions with Chinese characteristics.

As President Xi Jinping said in his speech at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo: “With regard to China’s policy measures toward the Middle East, China decides its position on issues on the basis of their own merits and the fundamental interests of the people in the Middle East. Instead of looking for a proxy in the Middle East, we promote peace talks; instead of seeking any sphere of influence, we call on all parties to join the circle of friends for the Belt and Road Initiative; instead of attempting to fill the ‘vacuum’, we build a cooperative partnership network for win-win outcomes”. President Xi also said explicitly that China would be “builders of peace, promoters of development, boosters of industrialization, supporters of stability and partners of people-to-people exchanges in the Middle East”. Put simply, peace and development, mutual benefit and win-win, fairness and justice, and tolerance and mutual appreciation are the intrinsic reasons why China has been able to broker the reconciliation and promote the trend of détente and development in the Middle East.

In contrast, the United States has, in recent years, not only provoked and intensified confrontation between Arab countries, Israel and Iran by strengthening the threat to Iran, and cobbled together an “Arab NATO” bloc that takes advantage of regional crises to sell arms. Its massive arms sales to Saudi Arabia amidst the Saudi-Iranian confrontation is more than telling. Moreover, the act of taking advantage of both parties during the Saudi-Qatar diplomatic breakup has left serious negative impact on the region.

Just as tensions are easing, the US carried out another air strike against Iranian targets in eastern Syria on March 23, with undoubtedly the aim of poking Iran, thereby undermining the easing of relations between Iran and regional countries and creating obstacles to the rapprochement. It is obvious that 20 years after launching the Iraq War, the US has not learnt the lessons from its Middle East policy – this explains why China’s foreign policy in the region is so beyond the comprehension of the US.

(Contributed by Liu Zhongmin, Professor, The Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, and Vice President of the China Middle East Society)