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CEFS Press Release on China Economic Forecast for 2014

  CEFS Press Release on China Economic Forecast for 2014
A Press Conference on “China Economic Forecast for 2014” organized by Center for Forecasting Science (CEFS) , Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) is held at the conference hall of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS on January 16, 2014.
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Forecasts on China for 2014

  Forecast on 2014 China’s GDP Growth Rate
The second phase, from 2012 to 2031, is a phase of medium and high rate growth, and the potential average annual growth rate is 7% to 8%. The third stage, from 2032 to the mid-21st century, is a phase of medium rate growth, and the potential average annual growth rate is 5% to 6%.
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  Forecast on 2014 China’s Prices
The annual CPI in 2014 is expected to rise by around 3.1%. The annual PPI and PPIRM are expected to rise by around 0.1% and decline by around 0.3% respectively. The annual growth rates of CPI, PPI and PPIRM of 2014 are higher than those in 2013, the rates go up in the first half year, while slow down in the second half year.
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  Forecast on 2014 China’s Consumption and Investment
China’s consumption market will maintain a stable growth. The nominal growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods will be around 13.7% in 2014, slightly higher than that of 2013. China will also see a stable investment growth. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets will be around 20% in 2014, remaining the same as that of 2013.
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  Forecast on 2014 China’s Foreign Trade
Both China’s exports and imports are expected to rise by around 8.2% in 2014, leaving the country with an increased trade surplus of 280 billion U.S. dollars. In the context of steady recovery of the United States economy and a low growth rate of exports from China to the United States in 2013, rapid growth for exports from China to the United States is expected to be around 8.5% in 2014.
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  Forecast on 2014 China’s Grain, Cotton, Oil-bearing Crops Production
The sown area of the oil-bearing crops will increase slightly in 2014. First, facilitated by national and regional agricultural policies for oil-bearing crops, the winter rapeseed sown area has been increased in 2013.
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  Outlook on 2014 China’s Main Industries
It is expected that the automobile industry will boom slightly in the first quarter of 2014 and then enter into a stable development phase. Econometric model predicts that China’s automobile production and sales will reach around by 22.1 million and 22 million in 2013, an increase by 14.7% and 14% respectively over last year.
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  Forecast on 2014 Global Bulk Commodities Prices
In 2014, world economic growth is expected to pick up, but economic growth will be weak and face the risk of withdrawal from the third round of quantitative easing, known as QE3, and the debt-ceiling crisis of the United States. In 2014, U.S. will begin ending of QE3, and EU will keep loose monetary policy, so the U.S. dollar will rise steadily.
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  Water Use Analysis and 2014 China’s Water Demand Forecast by Sector
Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the total water demand in China to be about 621.85 billion m3 in 2014.
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  Forecast on 2014 China’s Real Estate Prices
Regarding the investment in real estate market, we estimate the completed investment will increase by 19.9% in 2014 compared with 2013, reaching the amount of 1035.84 million Yuan, the growth rate will increase by 6.2 percentage points.
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  Outlook on 2014 China’s Logistics Industry
At the same time, with external risk and challenge increasing, China’s economic growth is obviously slowing down. As mentioned above, China’s economy will grow at a steady pace, the logistics industry is expected to go up steadily in 2014.
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